U.S. SENATE ELECTION FORECAST, 2012: Cloudy; High: 57 Democrats, Low:41 Democrats

The 2012 Senate elections are two years away but it is never too early to take a look at the potential outcome of that important election.  With the current Senate composition at 53 Democrats and 47 Republicans, the 2012 election will be pivotal in determining which party controls the Senate and, by extension, controls the legislative branch of government.  There will be 23 Senate Democrats (including two independents who caucus with the Democrats) running for reelection compared to 10 Senate Republicans.  The Democrats can only lose a net of 2 seats to retain their majority. 

The Senators running in 2012 will be facing a distinctly different electoral situation than in 2006 when they won their Senate seat.  This is also true for the three Senators who won their seats in special elections held since 2006: Scott Brown (R-MA) in 2009, Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) in 2010.  The main difference is that 2012 is a presidential election year.  The presidential candidate for each party will have an effect on each Senate race.  Voter turnout will be higher than during mid-term or special elections.  The make-up of the electorate will be closer to the registered voter percentages due to the importance of electing a president thereby reducing the influence of the committed partisans who always vote in every election.  The 2010 election was a good example of what can happen when the electorate is dominated by one party’s committed partisans.  That phenomenon rarely occurs in a presidential election year.

There will be other important factors that are hard to predict at this time.  The direction of the economy is probably the biggest unknown that will impact the 2012 election.  If voters are still worried about the economy then this could affect their willingness to vote for incumbents.

The quality of the incumbent’s opponent will help decide the election.  This was an important factor during the 2010 mid-term election.  Harry Reid (D-NV) should have lost his reelection bid but a Tea Party opponent, Sharron Angle, was unacceptable to the Nevada voters.  The same was true in Delaware where another Tea Party candidate, Christine O’Donnell, was so out of the mainstream that Democrat Chris Coons was easily elected.

With all of those factors outlined, here is the forecast for the 2012 U.S. Senate election.

“Bet the Farm” Democratic Winners (10):

Diane Feinstein (CA), Tom Carper (DE), Daniel Akaka (HI), Ben Cardin (MD), Jeff Bingaman (NM), Herb Kohl (WI), Bob Menendez (NJ), Kirsten Gillibrand (NY), Sheldon Whitehouse (RI), and Bernie Sanders (VT).

“Bet the Farm” Republican Winners (6):

John Kyl (AZ), Richard Lugar (IN), Roger Wicker (MS), Bob Corker (TN), Orrin Hatch (UT), John Barrasso (WY)

The two “Bet the Farm” groups are extremely safe.  These Senators have proven they can win multiple times and/or they come from states that reliably vote in their respective party’s favor.     

“Should Win, But…” Democrats (7):

Bill Nelson (FL), Debbie Stabenow (MI), Maria Cantwell (WA), Amy Klobuchar (MN), Kent Conrad (ND), Sherrod Brown (OH), and Bob Casey, Jr. (PA).

“Should Win, But…” Republicans (1):

Kay Bailey Hutchinson (TX).

These “Should Win, But…” Senators will face some challenges in order to win their races.  Under certain circumstances they could lose, but they will probably win.  For Stabenow and Cantwell, they represent states that have been Democratic in the past but the margins are getting smaller.  Conrad represents North Dakota and a strong Republican challenger could make for a tough race considering North Dakota voter’s support for the Republican presidential nominee over the years.  Bill Nelson of Florida, the perennial swing state, seems to be fairly safe based upon his past races but the Republican tide that swept Florida in 2010 could make him vulnerable if a serious candidate emerges on the Republican side.  In the cases of Klobuchar, Brown and Casey, the 2012 election is their first election as an incumbent Senator, always a dangerous election if the opponent is credible.  That being said, each of these Senators poll fairly well in their respective states and should win if they run an aggressive campaign as voter registration numbers are in their favor.  Kay Hutchinson of Texas should be safe but may be subject to a Tea Party challenger.  If that occurs, Hutchinson may not be the nominee which opens the door for a Democratic upset especially if the Obama campaign mobilizes the growing Hispanic vote in Texas.

“Anybody’s Guess” Democrats (5):

Claire McCaskill (MO), Jon Tester (MT), Jim Webb (VA), Joe Manchin (WV), Joe Lieberman (CT).

“Anybody’s Guess” Republicans (1):

Olympia Snowe (ME).

The “Anybody’s Guess” groups are just that, anybody’s guess as to the outcome.  Joe Lieberman and Olympia Snowe are the easiest races in which to hazard a guess.  Lieberman as an Independent caucusing with the Democrats will lose if the Republicans field a good candidate.  He won in 2006 with under 50% of the vote because of a weak Republican opponent.  Regardless, the Democrats will retain control of that seat since Connecticut is solidly in the Democratic column.  It would be nice to get rid of Joe Lieberman as he deserves to lose given his campaigning for John McCain in the 2008 presidential election.

Olympia Snowe will retain her seat if she is the Republican nominee.  However, there are rumblings in Maine that she will have a Tea Party challenger.  If that is the case, then the Democrats have a legitimate chance to pick up this seat.

The fates of Claire McCaskill and Jim Webb will be closely tied to the results of the presidential vote in their states.  Both Senators barely won their races in 2006, a year that was favorable to Democrats across the country.  McCaskill also benefited from a minimum wage initiative being on the ballot that influenced the results in her favor.  Webb was aided by his opponent’s (George Allen) “Macaca Moment”.  In this election, the turnout for or against Obama will play a huge role in deciding the election.  If McCaskill and Webb are smart politicians, they will stick with the president over the next two years and take their chances as proud Democrats instead of trying to be Republican-lite.  Obama easily carried VA in 2008 but narrowly lost MO so McCaskill is probably in more danger of losing than Webb.

Jon Tester and Joe Manchin will have to rely on personal popularity to get reelected.  President Obama is not well-liked in West Virginia, to put it mildly.  Manchin will be a thorn in the Democrats side on many issues over the next two years.  But if he follows the lead of his colleague Jay Rockefeller (D-WV), then he can win despite the president.  Obama almost carried Montana in 2008 and Senator Tester can be a loyal Democratic vote by following the lead of his colleague, Max Baucus (D-MT) and win reelection.

“Pack up Your Office” Democrats (1):

Ben Nelson (NE)

“Pack up Your Office” Republicans (2):

Scott Brown (MA), John Ensign (NV)

These three Senators will lose in 2012 provided that each has a good candidate running against them.  The Democrats will be glad to see Nelson lose and a two for one trade off nets them 1 additional Senate seat.  Scott Brown will probably not get the benefit of running against a weak Democratic candidate again, like Martha Coakley.  In a presidential election cycle, very blue Massachusetts will elect a Democrat in 2012.  Brown’s only chance is to break from his party often and vocally support President Obama.  John Ensign stands no chance against a good Democrat.  His marital infidelity and cover-up will cost him his seat, especially given the fact that Obama will carry Nevada. 

This rather long post boils down to a final prediction.  In the worst case scenario, Democrats lose all of the races other than the “Bet the Farm” group and keeps the Connecticut seat.  The Republicans win all of their races including the “Pack up Your Office” group.  This would mean a net loss of 12 seats for the Democrats and the new Senate in 2013 would consist of 59 Republicans and 41 Democrats.  Under this scenario, President Obama will have lost his reelection, too.

The best case scenario for Democrats is to hold all of their seats and win the races in TX, ME, MA, and NV for net gain of 4 seats which would increase their majority to 57 seats.

The most logical outcome at this point, though, is to have a split decision.  Democrats will lose in MO and NE but win in MA and NV which will keep the Senate at its current makeup of 53 Democrats and 47 Republicans.

I will update this forecast over the next year as candidates emerge and more polling data becomes available.  But for now, put your money on no change.